Can science give direction to agriculture and industrial expansion in Manitoba?
With Harvey battering the south coast of our continent, we heard a report that the mayor of Houston did not issue early evacuation orders with the statement that it was unknown what parts of greater Houston would require evacuation.
Fair enough. With 6.5 million people, gridlocked highways would not be helpful.
However, I immediately thought of the Aquanty Project which the Assiniboine River Basin Initiative (ARBI) has employed.
I couldn’t help wondering if the Houston area had invested in a computer modeling system such as Aquanty, to predict the “what ifs” of the tropical storms they are routinely subjected to. It just didn’t sound like they had such predictive computer modeling at their fingertips. In the days ahead, there will be endless replays regarding the biggest disaster to strike the USA. It’s a scale beyond imagination really. Who ever heard of getting a meter of rain in a couple days?
Right now, with the dry summer we have had, flooding in Western Manitoba is possibly the last thing on the minds of local politicians, policy makers and emergency responders.
However, the Aquanty Project is being deployed in the watershed to the west of Virden where small creeks became raging rivers and overland flooding swamped part of Virden Mainline motors and threatened homes in Virden in 2014.
Aquanty will be able to predict the actual path that waters will take, accounting for ongoing changes in road building, development, bridges, etc.
For Houston businesses and residents, higher ground and flood modeling would look pretty sweet right now.
When storms come up, or disasters strike, there is no time to spare. However, with Aquanty modeling in place, farmers or residents of towns such as Virden could be informed of the need to evacuate or take whatever measures needed. And, hopefully there will be preventive actions taken, based upon Aquanty feedback in days to come.
For this to work, LiDar and other data has to be entered into the Aquanty modeling software beforehand. As I understand, that is what the Aquanty Project west of Virden is about.
This is why the Town of Virden and RM of Wallace-Woodworth are investing tax dollars into ARBI, which has spawned the Aquanty Project.
Aquanty can prove useful well beyond flood scenarios. According to a Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association publication, “This project will construct a hydrology model of the Assiniboine River Basin to model the effects of flood and drought on soils and topography as well as simulating various mitigation measures to lessen flood/drought event impacts on agricultural lands.”
At the intersection of environmental protection and hog barns, Aquanty modeling may provide vital information.
“The HydroGeoSphere integrated groundwater - surface water model was used successfully to simulate liquid swine manure movement to freely draining tile drains and controlled tile drains in clay and sand soils, and during late fall and winter weather conditions.” See www.aquanty.com/agriculture-1 for more information.
It takes forward thinkers to build an ark when there isn’t a cloud in the sky; not to mention, Divine intervention.
An interesting side note, a full scale replica of Noah’s Ark has been built and last July, 2016, was opened in Williamstown, Kentucky. “Ark Encounter,” was built at a cost of more than $102 million.
Aquanty information could not have saved Houston; but knowing which highways, which routes to use, might have given local officials confidence to direct people to safety earlier rather than having to tell people to take their axe with them if they were planning to shelter in their attic. Or maybe not.
Here in Manitoba, it looks like Aquanty information could be used to guide industrial expansion; to determine where to build or not build a hog barn, or feedlot and how to safely dispose of the waste.
